It’s already been a tough home summer for the England cricket team. A shaky draw in the first test against India, where arguably the rain saved them from defeat was followed up by a shambolic collapse in the second innings of the second test - a match they had put themselves in with a shout of winning thanks to the brilliance of skipper Joe Root.
These performances are unlikely to strike fear into the heart of the Australian team and with the news England are likely to be without talisman Ben Stokes as well as fast bowler Jofra Archer, some are already writing off their chances of winning the Ashes this coming summer.
Speaking on Sky Sport’s Big Sports Breakfast, former Australian captain Michael Clarke already declared England as ‘cooked’ without Stokes and Archer but could they still pull off a shock victory? Let’s take a look at the form guide.
How are England shaping up for the Ashes?
Well, history is not on England’s side when it comes to winning down under. The last time England took the urn home from Australia was back in 2010/11 - a decade ago and their form since then has been terrible. A 5-0 whitewash in 2013-14 was followed up with a 4-0 loss the last time out in Australia and whilst they did manage to draw the last Ashes played, in England back in 2019, their form heading into this year is patchy, to say the least, down under.
Looking at their more recent form in world test cricket, things don’t look much better. They are currently 1-0 down in a five-test series against India which could easily have been 2-0 but for the weather. Prior to this series, they lost a two-test series to New Zealand on home soil and lost 3-1 in India at the end of 2020.
Their last Test series win came against a toothless Sri Lankan team and they also managed to beat Pakistan in a three-test series by the margin of 1-0 - hardly the sort of form that would keep the Australians up at night.
Whilst form is not the be-all and end-all heading into an Ashes series, the fact that England are operating without a number of their best players, not playing particularly well, and face the prospect of a very strong Australian team on home soil leaves you thinking this is going to be a tough tour for England and that Clarke might be right - they may be well and truly cooked before they start.
Form players
If truth be told, you have to look really hard to find any England player in real form with one exception - captain Joe Root. Root has been superb in the current test series with India and his recent form has seen him rise up the world Test batting rankings into second, behind New Zealand’s Kane Williamson.
In climbing to second in the rankings, Root leapfrogged Australian duo Steve Smith and Marnus Labschagne who are third and fourth respectively.
Root has already amassed 1,277 test runs in 2021, 587 more than second-placed Rohit Sharma and with three tests against India still to come, it’s hard to see him not adding to that tally with the form that he is in.
Looking at the next highest English run-scorer in 2021, you have to go all the way to Rory Burns who has 363 runs (914 behind Root). This goes to show how much the England team has come to rely on their skipper and you worry that he is going to struggle to carry the team Down Under the same way as he has against lesser test nations.
England will still rely on their tried and tested bowling attack that is likely to feature James Anderson and possibly Stuart Broad if he recovers from injury in time. It will not, as we report above, contain speedster Jofra Archer and it is also unlikely to include all-rounder Ben Stokes who is on an indefinite leave from cricket for mental health reasons.
England are still very much tinkering with their batting lineup as they head into the final three tests with India and it appears that a number of spots in the lineup are still up for grabs.
When England came to Australia in 2010-11, they had a very settled lineup of players that had enjoyed a lot of success playing together. This feels like another nail in the coffin that they still don’t know their best team just a few months out from the first test in Brisbane.
Can England win the Ashes in 2021-22?
Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty around the world right now amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and still some concerns about whether the Ashes will still go ahead, one thing that seems very certain is that this is going to be a tough ‘winter’ for the tourists and that it will take something very special for them to win any of the tests, never mind the series.
Still, given everything that has happened over the past 18 months, you can’t rule out an absolute upset but we would definitely not be putting our money on England at this stage.
Betway Sports currently has England at 4.50 to win the series Down Under with Australia strong favourites at 1.36. The draw is 7.00.
